It is difficult to make predictions it was once said, particularly about the future. Last year, I failed to foresee Brexit and the unstoppable ascent of Donald J. Trump to the White House. I also had misplaced faith that France would prevail in the European Football Championships and didn’t even consider the prospect of Leicester City winning the Premier League. It is lucky making calls on sporting events or political outcomes is not part of my investment process.
We are currently undergoing a macro-economic and geo-political maelstrom on both sides of the Atlantic, and it is difficult to know how the market will react to impending elections and economic flashpoints. This is naturally unnerving for investors, but, fortunately, it is possible to separate politics from portfolio decision making. Indeed, despite failing to predict or factor in any of the big political events of last year, our European equity strategies outperformed both the benchmark and peer group averages.